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I watch movies. A lot.
So it makes sense that an awards race like the Oscars is just about as close as someone like me gets to Fantasy Football. When it comes to making your picks it’s not enough to just see all of the films; there’s a science and history that’s commonly referenced. Looking back on past trends and winners is a common way to help predict who will be going home with Oscar gold, but many times my feelings on who will and/or should win are conflict.
Therefore I’ve included each category with two options: who I think WILL win and who I think SHOULD win (some even have a ‘Wild Card’ or ‘who should have at least been nominated’ choice. Just, you know, for funzies). Also note that I haven’t given my picks for every category because I’ve only voted on the ones where I’ve seen every film that was nominated within them.
So here’s my two cents:
Best Sound Editing
Who I Think Will Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Who I Think Should Win: Skyfall
Best Sound Mixing
Who I Think Will Win: Les Miserables
Who I Think Should Win: Les Miserables
Best Visual Effects
Who I Think Will Win: Life of Pi
Who I Think Should Win: Life of Pi
Who Should Have At Least Been Nominated: Ted
Best Production Design
Who I Think Will Win: Lincoln
Who I Think Should Win: Lincoln
Who Should Have At Least Been Nominated: Cloud Atlas
Best Music (Song)
Who I Think Will Win: Adele & Paul Epworth, Skyfall
Who I Think Should Win: Walter Murphy & Seth MacFarlane, Ted
Who Should Have At Least Been Nominated: John Legend, Django Unchained
Best Music (Score)
Who I Think Will Win: Mychael Danna, Life of Pi
Who I Think Should Win: Mychael Danna, Life of Pi
Who Should Have At Least Been Nominated: Jonny Greenwood, The Master
Best Make Up
Who I Think Will Win: Les Miserables
Who I Think Should Win: The Hobbit
Who Should Have At Least Been Nominated: Cloud Atlas
Best Cinematography
Who I Think Will Win: Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi
Who I Think Should Win: Claudio Miranda for Life of Pi or Roger Deakins for Skyfall
Who Should Have At Least Been Nominated: Mihai Malaimare Jr., The Master
Best Editing
Who I Think Will Win: William Goldenberg, Argo
Who I Think Should Win: Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg, Zero Dark Thirty
Best Animated Film
Who I Think Will Win: Brave
Who I Think Should Win: Wreck-It Ralph
Best Animated Short
Who I Think Will Win: John Kahrs, Paperman
Who I Think Should Win: John Kahrs, Paperman
Who Should Have At Least Been Nominated: Leo Verrier, Dripped
Best Screenplay (Original)
Who I Think Will Win: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Who I Think Should Win: Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Who Should Have At Least Been Nominated: Drew Goddard & Joss Whedon for The Cabin in the Woods, Zoe Kazan for Ruby Sparks and Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master.
Best Screenplay (Adapted)
Who I Think Will Win: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Who I Think Should Win: David Magee, Life of Pi
Who Should Have At Least Been Nominated: Ben Lewin, The Sessions
Best Supporting Actress
Who I Think Will Win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Who I Think Should Win: Sally Field, Lincoln
Best Supporting Actor
Who I Think Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Who I Think Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Who Should Have At Least Been Nominated: Dwight Henry for Beasts of the Southern Wild, Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained and (why the hell not) Bruce Willis for Moonrise Kingdom.
Best Actress
Who I Think Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Who I Think Should Win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Who Should Have At Least Been Nominated: Zoe Kazan, Ruby Sparks
Best Actor
Who I Think Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Who I Think Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Who Should Have At Least Been Nominated: John Hawkes for The Sessions and Jack Black for Bernie.
Best Director
Who I Think Will Win: Stephen Spielberg, Lincoln
Who I Think Should Win: Ang Lee, Life of Pi or Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Who Should Have At Least Been Nominated: Ben Affleck for Argo, and Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty
Best Picture
Who I Think Will Win: Argo
Who I Think Should Win: Life of Pi (but honestly, it was a great year for movies)
Who Should Have At Least Been Nominated: The Master
A few random notes:
- Amour for Best Foreign, though I think Holy Motors deserved a nom.
- Documentary & Live Action Shorts are always a bit of a toss-up if you don’t follow the festival circuit. I haven’t seen any of them this year yet, but I’ve heard great things about Inocente and Death of a Shadow respectively.
- Can we just give John Goodman an Oscar? Please? Flight, Argo, hell lord knows he deserved one for Barton Fink.
- Some day, Leo. Some day…
- I, for one am excited to see Seth MacFarlane host.
- Sally Field fought hard to play Mrs.Lincoln, did extensive research and held her own against Daniel Day-Lewis. Anne Hathaway shaved her head and is in the movie for maybe 20 minutes. I’m just saying…
- That said, I’m banking on Sacha Baron Cohen getting his own acting nomination within the next three years.
- Very curious to see what happens to Benh Zeitlin next. Living the dream.
- Sorry, Wes Anderson. You should have made Sam & Suzy enter some sort of dance-contest if you REALLY wanted to get more nominations.
- I will give any amount of money to see Affleck do a “How do you like them apples?”-style line in his acceptance speech when Argo picks up Best Picture. You’ve come a long way, Holden.
